Betting Value
Betting Underdogs
When underdogs offer value, why they're not automatically good bets, and how to handle the swings.
By Jared Narz · · 2 min read
Underdogs lose more often than they win. That's what makes them underdogs. But a bet doesn't need to win most of the time to be a good bet. It needs to win more often than the price implies.
The math
At +200, the implied probability is 100 / 300 = 33.3%.
Illustrative example: if you believe the true chance is 36%:
EV = (0.36 × $200) − (0.64 × $100) = $72 − $64 = +$8 per $100
That's a +EV bet even though you expect to lose it nearly two out of three times.
Underdogs aren't automatically value
- Big longshots are popular with recreational bettors, and books can shade those prices accordingly.
- "The underdog always covers" or "dogs are due" thinking is not analysis.
- The question is always the same: is the price better than the true probability?
Expect the swings
Betting underdogs means long losing streaks are normal, even when your process is good. A string of losses at +200 is expected sometimes. That's why consistent unit sizing matters more for underdog bettors, not less.
Practical tips
- Shop for the best price. On a longshot, the difference between +180 and +200 is significant. See Why Line Shopping Matters.
- Judge results over a large sample, not a week.
- Consider the spread instead of the moneyline (or vice versa) and compare the value of each.
Examples are illustrative and use hypothetical numbers. This article is educational content, not financial advice or a guarantee of results. 21+. Bet responsibly.