Betting Value
Why Winning Percentage Can Be Misleading
A high win rate doesn't mean profit. Why the price behind every win matters more than the record.
By Jared Narz · · 2 min read
"I hit 60% of my bets" sounds great. Whether it's actually good depends entirely on the prices behind those bets.
Win rate vs. break-even rate
Every price has a break-even win rate (its implied probability):
| Typical odds | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| -200 | 66.67% |
| -110 | 52.38% |
| +150 | 40.00% |
Illustrative example: 60% that loses money
100 bets on favorites at -200, risking 1 unit each (a win pays 0.5u):
- 60 wins × 0.5u = +30u
- 40 losses × 1u = −40u
- Net: −10u, despite winning 60%
Illustrative example: 45% that makes money
100 bets on underdogs at +150, risking 1 unit each (a win pays 1.5u):
- 45 wins × 1.5u = +67.5u
- 55 losses × 1u = −55u
- Net: +12.5u, despite losing most bets
Other ways records mislead
- Small samples: 10 or 20 bets tell you very little. Luck dominates short stretches.
- Missing prices: a record without the odds behind each bet can't be evaluated.
- Selective reporting: records that leave out losing plays, or count only certain bets, aren't real records.
What to look at instead
Units won or lost at the prices actually available, ROI, the average odds, and whether you're beating the closing line. That's why the JNarz Results page computes metrics from every graded play.
Examples are illustrative and use hypothetical numbers. This article is educational content, not financial advice or a guarantee of results. 21+. Bet responsibly.